Prior Spotlights:

Shaun Alexander

Larry Johnson

Steven Jackson

L. Tomlinson

Larry Johnson, KC RB

2006 Stat Line: 1789 rushing yards, 17 rushing TDs, 41 receptions, 410 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs

The last 3 years have been a wild rollercoaster ride for Larry Johnson. He was not much more than a backup his first 2 years in the league and then he exploded into relevance in 2005 after Priest Holmes went down with a season-ending neck injury. With only 9 starts, he compiled an amazing 1750 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns! Then last year the former Penn State standout proved all the doubters wrong and set an NFL-record for carries (416) en route to 1789 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. In addition to leading the Chiefs into the playoffs, he also solidified his value as a bonafide fantasy football stud.

Then a windfall of negativity started to hit LJ this offseason and the doubters are back on him for a whole new set of reasons. The offensive line suffered a major blow when perennial Pro Bowl guard Will Shields made the decision to retire. With the retirement of Willie Roaf prior to the '06 season, the Chiefs have now lost two offensive line cornerstones in two years. Kansas City has also had to deal with the whole Trent Green controversy and now they're struggling to decide between Damon Huard and former Alabama QB Brodie Croyle. Now, this preseason the offensive line took another huge blow with free agent left tackle signee Damion McIntosh injuring his knee and Johnson himself missing 25 days of camp during a hugely-publicized contract holdout.

So what does this all mean for drafters if Larry Johnson is sitting there for the taking? In my mind Larry Johnson is still a big-time fantasy stud. In fact, I believe that there are 4 true studs - LT, Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson (Gore doesn't make the cut with only 8 rushing TDs in '06). I don't buy that Johnson's been beaten down by the heavy rushing load over the last year and a half. He's still only 27 years old, he's only had one truly heavy season of work, and he didn't have to face the rigors of training camp for 25 days. I'm also not incredibly concerned with the quarterback situation. I fully expect Damon Huard to start the season, especially with Croyle's preseason struggle against New Orleans yesterday. Huard should be a solid QB, not great, but good enough until Croyle's ready to take over. And newsflash...the receiving corp was weak last year which means that Johnson has been the focus of every defense over he last 1.5 years anyways, so 2007 shouldn't be much different from what he saw in '06 from opposing defenses. I'm much more concerned about the state of the Kansas City offensive line. It's in absolute shambles and that's going to make the rushing holes awfully small for Johnson. The line worries me so much that I'm more concerned with the weakness of that crew than I am about the risk of Shaun Alexander getting injured again. I believe that LJ's production is going to drop in '07, but probably not as much as some may think. As such, I see Johnson as the 4th best running back and the 4th best overall player in the draft.

2007 Projected Stat Line: 1564 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs, 40 receptions, 405 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs